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Bonabeau article

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Mohammed,

I think your point on the role of intuition in model-building is well =
made
and I was surprised that it wasn't acknowledged in the article. IMHO,
model-building is just as much art as science and is likely to remain so =
for
some time yet. (Incidentally, has anyone proposed a methodology for
constructing ABMs? It would be interesting to know what would work =
better -
a fairly general prescription (cf. CRISP-DM in the data-mining world) or
something strongly template based (cf. KADS in the AI application =
world)).

Bonabeau's comments on the successes and failures of intuition seemed =
fair
enough (we remember the successes and forget the failures). However, I =
think
he should have applied the same criterion to the world of ABMs, GPs etc.
Yes, I've seen successful ABM projects: I've also seen ones that either
gathered dust or led to business decisions that were, with hindsight, =
wrong.
I'm not aware of any studies that properly compare the relative
effectiveness of the two approaches.

Robert

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<TITLE>Bonabeau article</TITLE>
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<P><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Trebuchet MS">Mohammed,</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Trebuchet MS">I think your point on the role =
of intuition in model-building is well made and I was surprised that it =
wasn't acknowledged in the article. IMHO, model-building is just as much =
art as science and is likely to remain so for some time yet. =
(Incidentally, has anyone proposed a methodology for constructing ABMs? =
It would be interesting to know what would work better - a fairly =
general prescription (cf. CRISP-DM in the data-mining world) or =
something strongly template based (cf. KADS in the AI application =
world)).</FONT></P>

<P><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Trebuchet MS">Bonabeau's comments on the =
successes and failures of intuition seemed fair enough (we remember the =
successes and forget the failures). However, I think he should have =
applied the same criterion to the world of ABMs, GPs etc. Yes, I've seen =
successful ABM projects: I've also seen ones that either gathered dust =
or led to business decisions that were, with hindsight, wrong. I'm not =
aware of any studies that properly compare the relative effectiveness of =
the two approaches.</FONT></P>

<P><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Trebuchet MS">Robert</FONT>
</P>

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Friam mailing list

Bonabeau article

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Bonabeau articleReading Robert's and Carl's comments, I can't help but =
feel that something has to be done about this lack of a methodology. If =
our clients have no way of telling the difference between a model that =
adds value and provides insight and one that is based on questionable =
guess work and leads to wrong decisions being made, we are doomed.=20

=20

It will only take a few high profile unsuccessful models to spoil it for =
everyone else. Eventually we might all be labeled snake oil merchants.

=20

I propose that we try to put together a working group that tries to do =
for ABMs what has been done for data mining and expert systems. If we =
are to build sustainable practices using tools such at ABMs, than those =
tools will have to mature. Carl's points are an example of the sort of =
discussions points we need to be talking about in that group.=20

=20

Any ideas about how we might set this up? Industrial partners and =
government support?

=20

Mohammed

----- Original Message -----=20
From: Robert Holmes=20
To: [hidden email]=20
Sent: Monday, May 05, 2003 7:27 PM
Subject: [FRIAM] Bonabeau article

Mohammed,=20

I think your point on the role of intuition in model-building is well =
made and I was surprised that it wasn't acknowledged in the article. =
IMHO, model-building is just as much art as science and is likely to =
remain so for some time yet. (Incidentally, has anyone proposed a =
methodology for constructing ABMs? It would be interesting to know what =
would work better - a fairly general prescription (cf. CRISP-DM in the =
data-mining world) or something strongly template based (cf. KADS in the =
AI application world)).

Bonabeau's comments on the successes and failures of intuition seemed =
fair enough (we remember the successes and forget the failures). =
However, I think he should have applied the same criterion to the world =
of ABMs, GPs etc. Yes, I've seen successful ABM projects: I've also seen =
ones that either gathered dust or led to business decisions that were, =
with hindsight, wrong. I'm not aware of any studies that properly =
compare the relative effectiveness of the two approaches.

Robert=20

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<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Bonabeau article</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2726.2500" name=3DGENERATOR>
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Reading Robert's and =
Carl's=20
comments, I can't help but feel that something has to be done about this =
lack of=20
a methodology. If our clients have no way of telling the difference =
between a=20
model that adds value and provides insight and one that is based on =
questionable=20
guess work and leads to wrong decisions being made, we are doomed.=20
</SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix =3D o ns =3D =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"=20
/><o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">It will only take a few =
high profile=20
unsuccessful models to spoil it for everyone else. <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Eventually we might all be =
labeled snake=20
oil merchants.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I propose that we try to =
put=20
together a working group that tries to do for ABMs what has been done =
for data=20
mining and expert systems. If we are to build sustainable practices =
using tools=20
such at ABMs, than those tools will have to mature. Carl=92s points are =
an example=20
of the sort of discussions points we need to be talking about in that =
group.=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Any ideas about how we =
might set=20
this up? Industrial partners and government =
support?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Mohammed</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P></FONT>-----=20
Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=[hidden email] =
href=3D"mailto:[hidden email]">Robert=20
Holmes</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=[hidden email]=20
href=3D"mailto:[hidden email]">[hidden email]</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, May 05, 2003 7:27 =
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [FRIAM] Bonabeau =
article</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"Trebuchet MS" size=3D2>Mohammed,</FONT> </P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Trebuchet MS" size=3D2>I think your point on the role =
of=20
intuition in model-building is well made and I was surprised that it =
wasn't=20
acknowledged in the article. IMHO, model-building is just as much art =
as=20
science and is likely to remain so for some time yet. (Incidentally, =
has=20
anyone proposed a methodology for constructing ABMs? It would be =
interesting=20
to know what would work better - a fairly general prescription (cf. =
CRISP-DM=20
in the data-mining world) or something strongly template based (cf. =
KADS in=20
the AI application world)).</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Trebuchet MS" size=3D2>Bonabeau's comments on the =
successes and=20
failures of intuition seemed fair enough (we remember the successes =
and forget=20
the failures). However, I think he should have applied the same =
criterion to=20
the world of ABMs, GPs etc. Yes, I've seen successful ABM projects: =
I've also=20
seen ones that either gathered dust or led to business decisions that =
were,=20
with hindsight, wrong. I'm not aware of any studies that properly =
compare the=20
relative effectiveness of the two approaches.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Trebuchet MS" size=3D2>Robert</FONT>=20
</P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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Friam mailing list

Bonabeau article

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Bonabeau articleI've also long thought that ABM needs a formal methodology,
as well as a formal framework-independent notation. Sort of the ABM
equivalent of the Rational Unified Process (RUP, the methodology) and
Unified Modeling Language (UML, the notation).

As far as high-profile unsuccessful models go, I wonder how badly the demise
of BiosGroup as a functioning company will reflect on ABM. Not to be too
much of a devil's advocate, but I wonder how much those of us who were a
part of it are already viewed as snake oil merchants. I hope not.

// Gary
-----Original Message-----
From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf Of
Mohammed El-Beltagy
Sent: Monday, May 05, 2003 4:13 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bonabeau article

Reading Robert's and Carl's comments, I can't help but feel that something
has to be done about this lack of a methodology. If our clients have no way
of telling the difference between a model that adds value and provides
insight and one that is based on questionable guess work and leads to wrong
decisions being made, we are doomed.

It will only take a few high profile unsuccessful models to spoil it for
everyone else. Eventually we might all be labeled snake oil merchants.

I propose that we try to put together a working group that tries to do for
ABMs what has been done for data mining and expert systems. If we are to
build sustainable practices using tools such at ABMs, than those tools will
have to mature. Carls points are an example of the sort of discussions
points we need to be talking about in that group.

Any ideas about how we might set this up? Industrial partners and
government support?

Mohammed

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<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML xmlns:o =3D =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"><HEAD><TITLE>Bonabeau =
article</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D492221722-05052003>I've=20
also long thought that ABM needs a formal methodology, as well as a =
formal=20
framework-independent notation. Sort of the ABM equivalent of the =
Rational=20
Unified Process (RUP, the methodology) and Unified Modeling Language =
(UML, the=20
notation).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D492221722-05052003></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D492221722-05052003>As far=20
as high-profile unsuccessful models go, I wonder how badly the =
demise of=20
BiosGroup as a functioning company will reflect on ABM. Not to be too =
much of a=20
devil's advocate, but I wonder how much those of us who were a part =
of it=20
are already viewed as snake oil merchants. I hope =
not.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D492221722-05052003></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D492221722-05052003>//=20
Gary</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> =
[hidden email]=20
[mailto:[hidden email]]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Mohammed=20
El-Beltagy<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, May 05, 2003 4:13 PM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
[hidden email]<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [FRIAM] Bonabeau=20
article<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Reading Robert's and =
Carl's=20
comments, I can't help but feel that something has to be done about =
this lack=20
of a methodology. If our clients have no way of telling the difference =
between=20
a model that adds value and provides insight and one that is based on=20
questionable guess work and leads to wrong decisions being made, we =
are=20
doomed. </SPAN><o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">It will only take a few =
high=20
profile unsuccessful models to spoil it for everyone else. <SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Eventually we might all be =
labeled=20
snake oil merchants.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I propose that we try to =
put=20
together a working group that tries to do for ABMs what has been done =
for data=20
mining and expert systems. If we are to build sustainable practices =
using=20
tools such at ABMs, than those tools will have to mature. Carl=92s =
points are an=20
example of the sort of discussions points we need to be talking about =
in that=20
group. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Any ideas about how we =
might set=20
this up? Industrial partners and government =
support?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Mohammed</SPAN></P></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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