Beyond Freakonomics: New Musings on the Economics of Everyday Life

[Owen Densmore]

Check out the recent lecture:
   September 27, 2006 - Public Lecture Series
   Steven Levitt, University of Chicago:
   "Beyond Freakonomics: New Musings on the Economics of Everyday Life"

   http://www.princeton.edu/WebMedia/lectures/

     -- Owen

Owen Densmore   http://backspaces.net

[Phil Henshaw-2]

Levitt is a good a talker (and story teller), but his reasoning is often
specious and it leads him into big errors.   He frequently uses the "oh
MY!, oh..MY!!" form of entertaining story telling, along with proof by
"I can't imagine any alternate".   He's also sometimes self-critical,
but those are actually the same tools that dominate conspiracy theory.
Statistical association does stimulate the imagination, is a great and
useful betting man's tool, and does reveal false associations.
Unfortunately it has no causal value and Levitt very frequently still
clings to that false hope.      

These are hazards anyone with an knack for entertainment stumbles into I
think.  It's too tempting.  One case in point is the 'abortion ends
crime wave' theory, where the only thing he proves is that two different
statistics identify the same group of people.  Wow!   It's the leading
way of his telling the story that brings about the appearance of
"amazing fact".  If you study the true causal sequences involved in the
end of the real post civil-rights crime wave of the American ghetto, a
profoundly different set of events found actually taking place.   The
actual timelines combined with his theory would have you conclude that
the reason the crack epidemic leveled off on Staten Island three years
before it did in the Bronx was because the conservative teens on SI were
that much earlier to get on line at the abortion clinics.  The whole
line of reasoning is remarkable only for demonstrating how distorting
prejudice can be.



Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040                      
tel: [phone]                
e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com          
explorations: www.synapse9.com    

> -----Original Message-----
> From: friam-bounces at redfish.com
> [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
> Sent: Saturday, October 14, 2006 12:44 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: [FRIAM] Beyond Freakonomics: New Musings on the
> Economics ofEveryday Life
>
>
> Check out the recent lecture:
>    September 27, 2006 - Public Lecture Series
>    Steven Levitt, University of Chicago:
>    "Beyond Freakonomics: New Musings on the Economics of
> Everyday Life"
>

   http://www.princeton.edu/WebMedia/lectures/

     -- Owen

Owen Densmore   http://backspaces.net



============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

[Marcus G. Daniels-3]

Phil Henshaw wrote:
> These are hazards anyone with an knack for entertainment stumbles into I
> think.  It's too tempting.  
I remember you once saying that the news is mostly for entertainment --
in some circles science is too...

[Phil Henshaw-2]

Well, then entertainment must be good for something!! :-)  The problem
isn't the entertainment really, it's  turning it into the cake rather
than treating it as icing.   I think that's basically why Bohr decided
to say QM violated causation, not because saying so had any effect but
just because it was a gamey idea and he could prove it couldn't be
disproved...

One of my dad's favorite kinds of teaching tricks was to lead people
into expectations as they were watching lab demonstrations.  Take a
pendulum, rigged to swing the whole width of the front lab bench in a
lecture hall.   To demonstrate the conservation of energy he'd stand at
one end of the bench and bring it up to his nose and let it swing across
the room.  IF he was careful and stood still, it would swing all the way
across and back, stopping mysteriously within an inch of his nose!  


Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040                      
tel: [phone]                
e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com          
explorations: www.synapse9.com    

> -----Original Message-----
> From: friam-bounces at redfish.com
> [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf Of Marcus G. Daniels
> Sent: Saturday, October 14, 2006 11:13 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Beyond Freakonomics: New Musings on the
> Economics ofEveryday Life
>
>
> Phil Henshaw wrote:
> > These are hazards anyone with an knack for entertainment
> stumbles into
> > I think.  It's too tempting.
> I remember you once saying that the news is mostly for
> entertainment --
> in some circles science is too...
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>