At St. John's This Summer - Music on the Hill

Greetings, all --

For those in Santa Fe this summer, you may wish to attend the
following, especially since you know the way to the College.  Press
release (from www.sjcsf.edu) follows:


CONCERTS

St. John's College, along with Partners KSFR Radio, The Santa Fe New
Mexican, and Platinum Event Sponsor Wells Fargo Bank, announces a free
summer music series at St. John's College

Wednesday Evenings
June 14 ? July 26
6 ? 8 pm
on the athletic field at St. John?s College

Free Admission

Bring a blanket and kick off your shoes! Dance to great local music in
the open air as you take in the incredible Santa Fe summer evenings.
Your own picnic and adult beverages are welcome, or sandwiches will be
available for purchase from Walter Burke Catering, as well as beer,
wine, and other beverages from Santa Fe Brewing Company.

June 14 ? Jazz | Chris Calloway
A dynamic jazz vocalist, Chris Calloway?s charismatic
style enchants audiences wherever she performs.

June 21 ? Jazz | Ron Helman
An instrumental band with a focus on jazz music of the
50s and 60s. Their music ? luscious, colorful, soothing,
delightful ? blends seamlessly and emerges from all four
players without any apparent effort.

June 28 ? Latin Jazz | Terra Plena
Latin jazz group, Terra Plena will present an evening of
Brazilian bossa nova and samba with some spicy salsa
rhythms mixed in!

July 12 ? Folk Blues | Chris Dracup
The Chris Dracup/Tommy Elskes trio will present an
evening of acoustic blues. These two performers are strong
vocalists as well as master guitar players.

July 19 ? Jazz | Cathy McGill with the Bert Dalton Trio
The Bert Dalton Trio featuring vocalist Cathryn McGill
will showcase Bert?s wonderful piano playing along with
Cathryn?s powerful vocals.

July 26 ? Calypso | Frank Leto
Frank Leto & Pandemonium finishes the series with a
lively evening of calypso music featuring the steel drum.
The infectious rhythms are sure to have people dancing!

Special thanks to the St. John?s College Philos Society for their
support of this event and to June Gold Event Sponsor Barraclough &
Associates. Sponsored in part by an advertising and promotion grant
from the Santa Fe New Mexican, KSFR Radio, and Wells Fargo Bank

For directions and more information, please call 984-6119.

(end of Press Release)

Yours in complexity,

- Claiborne Booker -
(St. John's College '84)
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[Phil Henshaw-2]

The hardest thing about imagining how growth works is that it demands
that you comprehend a whole complex system at once.   Of course you
inevitably have to guess about the edges and plug in some stock images
where your observations or brain power are lacking, because the feat is
always just a little too much to handle.   Pick something interesting
you're very familiar with at first.  The behavior of your kids, or your
crops, or your business successes or failures, the moods of your friends
or enemies, how ideas percolate in the lab, the last great or horrid
party you threw, etc.   Where you see exponential quickening (when
innocent beginnings suddenly take off, or fall completely flat, etc.)
try to document *everything* connected that was happening.   Find the
flow & the inflection points.


Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040                      
tel: [phone]                
e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com          
explorations: www.synapse9.com    

[Michael Agar]

Phil--That's an embarrassingly (for me) clear summary of what we  
jargoned up and called "trend theory" on an NIH grant. After too many  
years in the drug field, I wanted to explain how and why illicit drug  
epidemics kept happening. So we looked back in history for when  
"quickening" happened, for us the explosion of an epidemic incidence  
curve, heroin in the 60s and 90s, crack in the 80s, X in the 90s,  
methamphetamine in the 80s, etc. Then we looked around at what was  
going on at about the same time in three areas, historical conditions  
of the population who were the faces behind the numbers, changes in  
drug production systems, and changes in distribution networks.  
Quickening there too. Turns out when you get dramatic and unexpected  
changes in those distant systems at about the same time, and if they  
link up into positive feedback loops, you get the curve and a hell of  
a lot more. More to it in terms of fitting the theory to the many  
different instances, but on the whole it worked to tell you where to  
look to prevent at some particular moment, except most of what needed  
intervention wasn't an individual, so the concept didn't fly well in  
a medically dominated institute.

Mike



On Jun 13, 2006, at 8:59 PM, Phil Henshaw wrote:

> The hardest thing about imagining how growth works is that it demands
> that you comprehend a whole complex system at once.   Of course you
> inevitably have to guess about the edges and plug in some stock images
> where your observations or brain power are lacking, because the  
> feat is
> always just a little too much to handle.   Pick something interesting
> you're very familiar with at first.  The behavior of your kids, or  
> your
> crops, or your business successes or failures, the moods of your  
> friends
> or enemies, how ideas percolate in the lab, the last great or horrid
> party you threw, etc.   Where you see exponential quickening (when
> innocent beginnings suddenly take off, or fall completely flat, etc.)
> try to document *everything* connected that was happening.   Find the
> flow & the inflection points.
>
>
> Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> 680 Ft. Washington Ave
> NY NY 10040
> tel: [phone]
> e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com
> explorations: www.synapse9.com
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

[Phil Henshaw-2]

that's far out!  Great example.  If you're interested I did a fairly
careful study of the crimewave collapse in New York City
http://www.synapse9.com/cw/crimewave_nys2.htm.  It was something like
the collapse of the Soviet Union, a whole crime culture just sort of
gave up the ghost.   The fascinating part is that it happened so fast it
had to involve people changing their behavior, but no one on the street
remembers when their rage went away...  The noticeable effect was that
you stopped hearing shots at night, it got surprisingly quiet.  In the
final analysis?  What it seems to have been is a spontaneous
community-wide change of heart.  No doubt they were under huge pressure
from many directions, but were unmovable until the end, which points to
it being an internal rather than external cause.

There are lots of little bumps in the non-linear shapes you can read in
time series data.   A good general purpose data source is
http://www.robhyndman.info/TSDL/.  There tend to be good interventions
for most any emergent system, if you have some early access and think
about where the compounding returns (the critical positive feedback
links) are located.   Police don't quite know it yet but the GIS crime
hotspot tools they're presently using to dispatch the cops to where the
crime will be can become a superior emergence response tool too.
Naturally they've also got to think about the whole picture of what's
happening to find what kind of intervention would help, but that'll
develop I think.

>
> Phil--That's an embarrassingly (for me) clear summary of what we  
> jargoned up and called "trend theory" on an NIH grant. After
> too many  
> years in the drug field, I wanted to explain how and why
> illicit drug  
> epidemics kept happening. So we looked back in history for when  
> "quickening" happened, for us the explosion of an epidemic incidence  
> curve, heroin in the 60s and 90s, crack in the 80s, X in the 90s,  
> methamphetamine in the 80s, etc. Then we looked around at what was  
> going on at about the same time in three areas, historical
> conditions  
> of the population who were the faces behind the numbers, changes in  
> drug production systems, and changes in distribution networks.  
> Quickening there too. Turns out when you get dramatic and unexpected  
> changes in those distant systems at about the same time, and if they  
> link up into positive feedback loops, you get the curve and a
> hell of  
> a lot more. More to it in terms of fitting the theory to the many  
> different instances, but on the whole it worked to tell you where to  
> look to prevent at some particular moment, except most of
> what needed  
> intervention wasn't an individual, so the concept didn't fly well in  
> a medically dominated institute.
>
> Mike
>
>
>
> On Jun 13, 2006, at 8:59 PM, Phil Henshaw wrote:
>
> > The hardest thing about imagining how growth works is that
> it demands
> > that you comprehend a whole complex system at once.   Of course you
> > inevitably have to guess about the edges and plug in some
> stock images
> > where your observations or brain power are lacking, because the
> > feat is
> > always just a little too much to handle.   Pick something
> interesting
> > you're very familiar with at first.  The behavior of your kids, or  
> > your
> > crops, or your business successes or failures, the moods of your  
> > friends
> > or enemies, how ideas percolate in the lab, the last great or horrid
> > party you threw, etc.   Where you see exponential quickening (when
> > innocent beginnings suddenly take off, or fall completely
> flat, etc.)
> > try to document *everything* connected that was happening.  
>  Find the
> > flow & the inflection points.
> >
> >
> > Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > 680 Ft. Washington Ave
> > NY NY 10040
> > tel: [phone]
> > e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com
> > explorations: www.synapse9.com
> >
> >
> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures,
> > archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>

[Phil Henshaw-2]

Well, sometimes too much should be enough already(!)  I seem to keep
looking under the rocks as if to see where their legs are, and it do
mystify folk somet'n terrible...   I just find data shape analysis an
absolutely wonderfully source for complex system discoveries.   Yea,
it's a very different technique, but I picked it when I was looking for
a vehicle because it asks great questions about what's not on the page,
and directly links complex systems inquiry with plentiful high quality
DATA reflecting things in our world with emergent complexity that really
matters to us personally.  I finally got around to writing a new summary
of my method this weekend
[http://www.synapse9.com/ObservingSystems.pdf].   Yea, well, it's a
little much.

You know how (speaking here to the old timers I guess) we all thought
the information age wouldn't really amount to very much, but there were
all these 'visionaries' running around describing the unbelievable world
we have with us today?   Systems knowledge is like that too, you know.
Simply the audacity of the leap I'm directly asking people to consider
making should cause 99% or more to just throw up their hands in dismay.
It's not that there's so much I'm saying that others haven't said
before...    It's just that I'm making it real.  There's no reflection
on you if you don't, but the honest response if you get it might be just
to sit down and cry.  

as always, the best questions are the dumb obvious ones, the kind you're
tempted to think you're supposed to already know all about...

Cheers,


Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040                      
tel: [phone]                
e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com          
explorations: www.synapse9.com