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Anticipate wildfires using machine learning

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Jochen Fromm-5

Anticipate wildfires using machine learning

Wildfires are the last step before desertification. We need to prevent it confine them. Is it possible to increase the accuracy of wildfire predictions using machine learning?

https://towardsdatascience.com/anticipating-wildfires-with-machine-learning-tools-5eb43b450d36

-J.

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cody dooderson

Re: Anticipate wildfires using machine learning

I might be entering into this conversation out of context. I have seen a lot of forest fire conversations on FRIAM but have been too lazy to read them. Also I am not an ecologist.

I disagree that wildfires are always the last step before desertification. Forests go through cycles, often called ecological successions, and often successions include fire. A lot of experts agree that frequent low intensity wildfires promote biodiversity. The western United States has been effectively putting out wildfires for about the last century, which led to dense monocultures that are prime for large destructive fires. It is believed that before our intervention the forests were thinner and burned more often. Historic fires were lower intensity and burned in more of a mosaic pattern. That mosaic pattern of burned landscapes is a significant contributor to biodiversity. A mature forest harbors different kinds of organisms than does a freshly burned one or one in an intermediate stage of growth. When there is a mosaic pattern of say grassland and mature forest, the forest is usually much more diverse. When a forest is more diverse it is healthier, usually.

Cody Smith

On Sun, Jun 13, 2021 at 7:30 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wildfires are the last step before desertification. We need to prevent it confine them. Is it possible to increase the accuracy of wildfire predictions using machine learning?
https://towardsdatascience.com/anticipating-wildfires-with-machine-learning-tools-5eb43b450d36

-J.

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Gary Schiltz-4

Re: Anticipate wildfires using machine learning

I couldn't have said it better myself. Fires are very much a part of dry land ecosystems. The only reason they are "catastrophic" is that they have been suppressed in the US for the last century or so.

On Mon, Jun 14, 2021 at 12:32 PM cody dooderson <[hidden email]> wrote:

I might be entering into this conversation out of context. I have seen a lot of forest fire conversations on FRIAM but have been too lazy to read them. Also I am not an ecologist.
I disagree that wildfires are always the last step before desertification. Forests go through cycles, often called ecological successions, and often successions include fire. A lot of experts agree that frequent low intensity wildfires promote biodiversity. The western United States has been effectively putting out wildfires for about the last century, which led to dense monocultures that are prime for large destructive fires. It is believed that before our intervention the forests were thinner and burned more often. Historic fires were lower intensity and burned in more of a mosaic pattern. That mosaic pattern of burned landscapes is a significant contributor to biodiversity. A mature forest harbors different kinds of organisms than does a freshly burned one or one in an intermediate stage of growth. When there is a mosaic pattern of say grassland and mature forest, the forest is usually much more diverse. When a forest is more diverse it is healthier, usually.

Cody Smith

On Sun, Jun 13, 2021 at 7:30 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:
Wildfires are the last step before desertification. We need to prevent it confine them. Is it possible to increase the accuracy of wildfire predictions using machine learning?
https://towardsdatascience.com/anticipating-wildfires-with-machine-learning-tools-5eb43b450d36

-J.

- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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Pieter Steenekamp

Re: Anticipate wildfires using machine learning

The same in the ecosystem "Fynbos" in the Southern tip of Africa where I live. Some of the plant's seeds won't germinate in the absence of smoke. See https://depts.washington.edu/propplnt/2003guidelines/group1/Smoke%20Infusion.htm

On Mon, 14 Jun 2021 at 20:06, Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:

I couldn't have said it better myself. Fires are very much a part of dry land ecosystems. The only reason they are "catastrophic" is that they have been suppressed in the US for the last century or so.

On Mon, Jun 14, 2021 at 12:32 PM cody dooderson <[hidden email]> wrote:
I might be entering into this conversation out of context. I have seen a lot of forest fire conversations on FRIAM but have been too lazy to read them. Also I am not an ecologist.
I disagree that wildfires are always the last step before desertification. Forests go through cycles, often called ecological successions, and often successions include fire. A lot of experts agree that frequent low intensity wildfires promote biodiversity. The western United States has been effectively putting out wildfires for about the last century, which led to dense monocultures that are prime for large destructive fires. It is believed that before our intervention the forests were thinner and burned more often. Historic fires were lower intensity and burned in more of a mosaic pattern. That mosaic pattern of burned landscapes is a significant contributor to biodiversity. A mature forest harbors different kinds of organisms than does a freshly burned one or one in an intermediate stage of growth. When there is a mosaic pattern of say grassland and mature forest, the forest is usually much more diverse. When a forest is more diverse it is healthier, usually.

Cody Smith

On Sun, Jun 13, 2021 at 7:30 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:
Wildfires are the last step before desertification. We need to prevent it confine them. Is it possible to increase the accuracy of wildfire predictions using machine learning?
https://towardsdatascience.com/anticipating-wildfires-with-machine-learning-tools-5eb43b450d36

-J.

- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
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