All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
 
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Most of you probably know the site Five Thirty Eight, which emerged over the last few election cycles as the top nerdy polling / public-opinion-modeling site. Some of you know SMBC, which has spent quite a few years towards the top of the pantheon of nerd comics. Well, the two collaborated on a long-form comic explaining why it is so hard to get stable models of Covid-19. It is really well done. If you have been struggling to explain to people how models like this work and why they are challenging, I highly recommend you try sharing this with them:
----------- Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist American University - Adjunct Instructor .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Eric, ‘n all, The Pandemic Cartoon, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling is REALLY GOOD. The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk. And that message comes through even tho the cartoon NEVER reminds us of the stupendous irrationality of non-linear systems. But one thing we do know. We have bent the curve in Santa Fe. Please see attachment. Now, mind you, I still think there are about 100 active cases of the virus in the County at the moment and until we know where each of those people is and what she/he is doing, we had better stay home and stay masked. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Eric Charles Most of you probably know the site Five Thirty Eight, which emerged over the last few election cycles as the top nerdy polling / public-opinion-modeling site. Some of you know SMBC, which has spent quite a few years towards the top of the pantheon of nerd comics. Well, the two collaborated on a long-form comic explaining why it is so hard to get stable models of Covid-19. It is really well done. If you have been struggling to explain to people how models like this work and why they are challenging, I highly recommend you try sharing this with them:
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. American University - Adjunct Instructor .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Coronavirus New Mexico numbers extended.xlsx (17K)
Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Nick writes:
< The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk. >
Another perspective on prediction.
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of [hidden email] <[hidden email]>
Sent: Tuesday, April 14, 2020 11:07 AM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19 Eric, ‘n all,
The Pandemic Cartoon,
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling
is REALLY GOOD.
The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk.
And that message comes through even tho the cartoon NEVER reminds us of the stupendous irrationality of non-linear systems.
But one thing we do know. We have bent the curve in Santa Fe. Please see attachment. Now, mind you, I still think there are about 100 active cases of the virus in the County at the moment and until we know where each of those people is and what she/he is doing, we had better stay home and stay masked.
Nick
Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of
Eric Charles
Most of you probably know the site Five Thirty Eight, which emerged over the last few election cycles as the top nerdy polling / public-opinion-modeling site. Some of you know SMBC, which has spent quite a few years towards the top of the pantheon of nerd comics. Well, the two collaborated on a long-form comic explaining why it is so hard to get stable models of Covid-19. It is really well done. If you have been struggling to explain to people how models like this work and why they are challenging, I highly recommend you try sharing this with them:
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. American University - Adjunct Instructor .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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That is a super cool paper, well worth the time it took for my super slow brain. I'm still struggling with the stance I have to take on non-determined numbers for it to make sense. But because it simply *smacks* of the same argument I make to my clients about numerical integration e.g. ODE systems vs. DE systems, I keep thinking I'll snap to it at some point. Maybe I need to get my hands on some LSD and re-read it. 8^)
Thanks for posting it. On 4/14/20 10:15 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Another perspective on prediction. > > https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10670-019-00165-8 -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Marcus, et. al., I love it when you Wizards talk dirty. It is usual to identify initial conditions of classical dynamical systems with mathematical real numbers. However, almost all real numbers contain an infinite amount of information. I argue that a finite volume of space can’t contain more than a finite amount of information, hence that the mathematical real numbers are not physically relevant. Moreover, a better terminology for the so-called real numbers is “random numbers”, as their series of bits are truly random. I propose an alternative classical mechanics, which is empirically equivalent to classical mechanics, but uses only finite-information numbers. This alternative classical mechanics is non-deterministic, despite the use of deterministic equations, in a way similar to quantum theory. Interestingly, both alternative classical mechanics and quantum theories can be supplemented by additional variables in such a way that the supplemented theory is deterministic. Most physicists straightforwardly supplement classical theory with real numbers to which they attribute physical existence, while most physicists reject Bohmian mechanics as supplemented quantum theory, arguing that Bohmian positions have no physical reality. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- That is a super cool paper, well worth the time it took for my super slow brain. I'm still struggling with the stance I have to take on non-determined numbers for it to make sense. But because it simply *smacks* of the same argument I make to my clients about numerical integration e.g. ODE systems vs. DE systems, I keep thinking I'll snap to it at some point. Maybe I need to get my hands on some LSD and re-read it. 8^) Thanks for posting it. On 4/14/20 10:15 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Another perspective on prediction. > > https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10670-019-00165-8 -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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To be clear, the below aren't Nick's words, they're cut-n-paste from the paper.
On 4/16/20 9:23 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > It is usual to identify initial conditions of classical dynamical systems with mathematical real numbers. However, almost all real numbers contain an infinite amount of information. I argue that a finite volume of space can’t contain more than a finite amount of information, hence that the mathematical real numbers are not physically relevant. Moreover, a better terminology for the so-called real numbers is “random numbers”, as their series of bits are truly random. I propose an alternative classical mechanics, which is empirically equivalent to classical mechanics, but uses only finite-information numbers. This alternative classical mechanics is non-deterministic, despite the use of deterministic equations, in a way similar to quantum theory. Interestingly, both alternative classical mechanics and quantum theories can be supplemented by additional variables in such a way that the supplemented theory is deterministic. Most physicists straightforwardly supplement classical > theory with real numbers to which they attribute physical existence, while most physicists reject Bohmian mechanics as supplemented quantum theory, arguing that Bohmian positions have no physical reality. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Well, I love the idea that all the QM hocus pocus could just boil down to round off. Your "free will" is truncation error. Oops. (Funny contrast with the last episode of Devs.)
Marcus
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 10:27 AM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19 To be clear, the below aren't Nick's words, they're cut-n-paste from the paper.
On 4/16/20 9:23 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > It is usual to identify initial conditions of classical dynamical systems with mathematical real numbers. However, almost all real numbers contain an infinite amount of information. I argue that a finite volume of space can’t contain more than a finite amount of information, hence that the mathematical real numbers are not physically relevant. Moreover, a better terminology for the so-called real numbers is “random numbers”, as their series of bits are truly random. I propose an alternative classical mechanics, which is empirically equivalent to classical mechanics, but uses only finite-information numbers. This alternative classical mechanics is non-deterministic, despite the use of deterministic equations, in a way similar to quantum theory. Interestingly, both alternative classical mechanics and quantum theories can be supplemented by additional variables in such a way that the supplemented theory is deterministic. Most physicists straightforwardly supplement classical > theory with real numbers to which they attribute physical existence, while most physicists reject Bohmian mechanics as supplemented quantum theory, arguing that Bohmian positions have no physical reality. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Or, your free will is nothing but randomness.
When we took Renee's granddaughter to the UK last year, I made some comment suggesting I doubted she would ever respond violently to a mugger (all the girls, being typical Americans who rarely travel to foreign countries and, hence, suffer an implicit xenophobia, were afraid of some of the alleys in Newcastle). She looked up at me and said "You don't know me" with that hilarious cuteness riding atop mysterious girlpower that's a recognizable trope in most modern narratives. (Think "Liza" in Transferts https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6531888/mediaviewer/rm2036883456.) I was forced to admit it's true. I don't know her or what the next bit in her sequence will produce. On 4/16/20 9:30 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Well, I love the idea that all the QM hocus pocus could just boil down to round off. Your "free will" is truncation error. Oops. (Funny contrast with the last episode of Devs.) -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Glen writes:
"I was forced to admit it's true. I don't know her or what the next bit in her sequence will produce."
Similarly, and without being a spoiler, Marty's adaptation to his visit to Mexico, in _Ozark_. Whether it is "free" or not is not the distinction I would make. Is it an interesting response, to whatever it is?
Marcus
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 10:45 AM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19 Or, your free will is nothing but randomness.
When we took Renee's granddaughter to the UK last year, I made some comment suggesting I doubted she would ever respond violently to a mugger (all the girls, being typical Americans who rarely travel to foreign countries and, hence, suffer an implicit xenophobia, were afraid of some of the alleys in Newcastle). She looked up at me and said "You don't know me" with that hilarious cuteness riding atop mysterious girlpower that's a recognizable trope in most modern narratives. (Think "Liza" in Transferts https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6531888/mediaviewer/rm2036883456.) I was forced to admit it's true. I don't know her or what the next bit in her sequence will produce. On 4/16/20 9:30 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Well, I love the idea that all the QM hocus pocus could just boil down to round off. Your "free will" is truncation error. Oops. (Funny contrast with the last episode of Devs.) -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
Could anybody have been in any doubt that those weren’t my words? (};-)] If there is such a person, I am honored by their confusion. By the way, what is this “reality” that the author is talking about, speaking of physics’ s need for philosophy. And while I am in and being grumpy, Steve, speaking as a lifetime bird researcher, I can assure you that birds could make good use of ornithology if it were available to them. I am truly, TRULY, bothered by the Feynman cult. That’s a terrible quote. NIck Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels Well, I love the idea that all the QM hocus pocus could just boil down to round off. Your "free will" is truncation error. Oops. (Funny contrast with the last episode of Devs.) Marcus From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> To be clear, the below aren't Nick's words, they're cut-n-paste from the paper. .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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It's not a matter of the audience misunderstanding you so much as taking responsibility for our own actions. With the recent discussion with Dave about his assuming nobody would read his words as authoritative (despite their wording not having any "in my opinion" caveats) AND the citing of notorious self-aggrandizing egomaniacs like Wolfram who rarely, if ever, credit others for their works, I think it's important for us to do at least some accounting of where our work starts and others' works end.
FWIW, I can barely bring myself to read Kauffman's works with all the "I invented this" and "I thought that". Wolfram is orders of magnitude worse than Kauffman ... makes me sick to my stomach to read anything Wolfram writes ... but then, I'm an ordinary person so my gustatory reaction to his work is irrelevant. As for the Feynman cult ... there is no Feynman cult, only well-deserved recognition. You can see that pretty easily from *how* Feynman is cited, as compared to other admitted geniuses like Kauffman or Wolfram. On 4/16/20 10:57 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > Could anybody have been in any doubt that those weren’t my words? > > (};-)] > > If there is such a person, I am honored by their confusion. > > By the way, what is this “reality” that the author is talking about, speaking of physics’ s need for philosophy. And while I am in and being grumpy, Steve, speaking as a lifetime bird researcher, I can assure you that birds could make good use of ornithology if it were available to them. I am truly, TRULY, bothered by the Feynman cult. That’s a terrible quote. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Glen,
I think the repetition of the Feynman Quote, which is just misguided, and which I hear all the time, and which I cannot believe Feynman would not have repudiated if he were set down with a good philosopher, is Cultish. But it was Cranky Nick who said that. I disavow him, utterly. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 12:29 PM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19 It's not a matter of the audience misunderstanding you so much as taking responsibility for our own actions. With the recent discussion with Dave about his assuming nobody would read his words as authoritative (despite their wording not having any "in my opinion" caveats) AND the citing of notorious self-aggrandizing egomaniacs like Wolfram who rarely, if ever, credit others for their works, I think it's important for us to do at least some accounting of where our work starts and others' works end. FWIW, I can barely bring myself to read Kauffman's works with all the "I invented this" and "I thought that". Wolfram is orders of magnitude worse than Kauffman ... makes me sick to my stomach to read anything Wolfram writes ... but then, I'm an ordinary person so my gustatory reaction to his work is irrelevant. As for the Feynman cult ... there is no Feynman cult, only well-deserved recognition. You can see that pretty easily from *how* Feynman is cited, as compared to other admitted geniuses like Kauffman or Wolfram. On 4/16/20 10:57 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > Could anybody have been in any doubt that those weren’t my words? > > (};-)] > > If there is such a person, I am honored by their confusion. > > By the way, what is this “reality” that the author is talking about, speaking of physics’ s need for philosophy. And while I am in and being grumpy, Steve, speaking as a lifetime bird researcher, I can assure you that birds could make good use of ornithology if it were available to them. I am truly, TRULY, bothered by the Feynman cult. That’s a terrible quote. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Well, my guess is that Feynman would admit that everything has context, including both an original utterance and subsequent repetitions of all or part of that utterance. [†] And it's also important to note that ALL pithy aphorisms are abominations because they all deny the context. We see this most clearly in "pseudo-profound bullshit": http://sebpearce.com/bullshit/
And, as Marcus points out with "complexity club", we see it right here in this forum. So, when we read something like that, it's more important to try to understand, e.g., what _Steve_ meant in his use of the aphorism, rather than asserting that he's a member of a cult ... which he probably is, but since I'm a member of the Church of Set, the Satanic Temple, a Discordian Episkopos, and a member/owner of a brewing cooperative, his cult membership is not the point. [†] One of the lessons of postmodernism is that one can read a text without reading *through* the text. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. On 4/16/20 11:35 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > I think the repetition of the Feynman Quote, which is just misguided, and which I hear all the time, and which I cannot believe Feynman would not have repudiated if he were set down with a good philosopher, is Cultish. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Ok. Well said. I am sending Cranky Nick to the medicine cabinet right now. Give a few hours for the medication to take.
Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 12:53 PM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19 Well, my guess is that Feynman would admit that everything has context, including both an original utterance and subsequent repetitions of all or part of that utterance. [†] And it's also important to note that ALL pithy aphorisms are abominations because they all deny the context. We see this most clearly in "pseudo-profound bullshit": http://sebpearce.com/bullshit/ And, as Marcus points out with "complexity club", we see it right here in this forum. So, when we read something like that, it's more important to try to understand, e.g., what _Steve_ meant in his use of the aphorism, rather than asserting that he's a member of a cult ... which he probably is, but since I'm a member of the Church of Set, the Satanic Temple, a Discordian Episkopos, and a member/owner of a brewing cooperative, his cult membership is not the point. [†] One of the lessons of postmodernism is that one can read a text without reading *through* the text. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. On 4/16/20 11:35 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > I think the repetition of the Feynman Quote, which is just misguided, and which I hear all the time, and which I cannot believe Feynman would not have repudiated if he were set down with a good philosopher, is Cultish. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Good Freud quote, Glen. On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 12:57 PM <[hidden email]> wrote: Ok. Well said. I am sending Cranky Nick to the medicine cabinet right now. Give a few hours for the medication to take. Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Yes, but what did he mean by it, I wonder? >8^D
On 4/16/20 12:01 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > Good Freud quote, Glen. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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He meant that cigars aren't always phalluses. He was probably smoking a cigar when he said it. Classically "phallus" means a symbol. On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 1:03 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: Yes, but what did he mean by it, I wonder? >8^D Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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The queen was wondering too.
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]>
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 1:06 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19 He meant that cigars aren't always phalluses. He was probably smoking a cigar when he said it.
Classically "phallus" means a symbol.
On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 1:03 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote:
Yes, but what did he mean by it, I wonder? >8^D Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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I'm not so sure we know what he meant ... or if he even said it!
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/12/just-a-cigar/ On 4/16/20 12:09 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > The queen was wondering too. > > https://hvmag.com/life-style/history/franklin-delano-roosevelt-the-picnic-that-won-the-war-the-royal-visit-the-hot-dog-summit-of-1939-and-hyde-park-on-the-hudson-movie/ > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > *From:* Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> > *Sent:* Thursday, April 16, 2020 1:06 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19 > > He meant that cigars aren't always phalluses. He was probably smoking a cigar when he said it. > > Classically "phallus" means a symbol. > > On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 1:03 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email] <mailto:[hidden email]>> wrote: > > Yes, but what did he mean by it, I wonder? >8^D -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19
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Well, I know this happened: In 1974, when I worked in the Research Center in Child Psychiatry at the University of Pittsburgh, I was happily smoking a cigar while working on my computer terminal which gave me access to the DECSystem10. A very senior woman psychoanalyst looked in my door and said, "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar." She was a child training analyst which is the highest level of training in the psychoanalytic training hierarchy. I didn't ask her what she meant by that. On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 1:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: I'm not so sure we know what he meant ... or if he even said it! Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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