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All Together Now - NYTimes.com

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Owen Densmore

All Together Now - NYTimes.com

Administrator

Interesting premise from Tom's latest op-ed piece: http://goo.gl/rm3Te

We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how to manage them:

Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up. The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge. Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected — is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?

The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important it is.

Worth a read.

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Victoria Hughes

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com (Friedman+Krakauer)

I'd couple this with the Ulam talks.

After further understanding the global cultural pressures we've taken on when we plunged gleefully over the edge into the digital revolution, we need to add that to the mix.

Cracking up, cracking open.

Our tools make our revolutions possible and increase their impact and speed.

Clearly there are dangers as well as benefits to all our hyperfast, hyperconnected technology. As Krakauer ended the last talk, he pointed to the stock-trading algorithms that reacted faster than humans would have, and were a major push over the economic edge for us. His take: these were a more disturbing example of machine "intelligence" than other Doomsday machines, and are already embedded in our culture.

Internally, externally. Extraordinary pressures, extraordinary opportunities.

All connected.

We are in midair over the waterfall.

What we can do is start where we are: get honest and capable in our selves and our communities. Reach out from here.

We can incorporate revolutions in governments, economics, technologies, at a pace we can manage. We have to recognize our situation more clearly first.

Much bigger stakes than what passwords we should use.

Tory

Tory Hughes

www.toryhughes.com

The Creative Development manual

On Sep 5, 2011, at 9:57 AM, Owen Densmore wrote:

Interesting premise from Tom's latest op-ed piece: http://goo.gl/rm3Te

We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how to manage them:

Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up. The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge. Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected — is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?

The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important it is.

Worth a read.

-- Owen
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Nick Thompson

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

The problem (the advantage?) of being old is that there is such an obvious escape hatch.

From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Monday, September 05, 2011 11:58 AM
To: Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] All Together Now - NYTimes.com

Interesting premise from Tom's latest op-ed piece: http://goo.gl/rm3Te

We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how to manage them:

Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up. The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge. Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected — is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?

The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important it is.

Worth a read.

-- Owen

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com

You mean: let the idiots figure it out for themselves, Nick?

--Doug

On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 11:02 AM, Nicholas Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

O

The problem (the advantage?) of being old is that there is such an obvious escape hatch.

N

From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Monday, September 05, 2011 11:58 AM
To: Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] All Together Now - NYTimes.com

Interesting premise from Tom's latest op-ed piece: http://goo.gl/rm3Te

We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how to manage them:

Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up. The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge. Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected — is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?

The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important it is.

Worth a read.

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Jochen Fromm-5

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

One big problem is if America will be
able to prevent corruption despite absolute
military power. With Obama there is at
least a real chance to defeat Lord Acton,
who said "Power tends to corrupt, and
absolute power corrupts absolutely"
(an interesting psychological observation
BTW).

The largest shift and biggest challenge will be
the shift to sustainability and renewable energy,
the buzzwords everybody is talking about
but nobody really tries to achieve.
We are running out of oil and resources,
for example Phosphorus for mineral fertilizers,
or rare earth metals for technical products.
There is only a limited amount of
natural key resources, and some will be
running out already in 10-20 years, see
http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg

-J.

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Owen Densmore

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com (Friedman+Krakauer)

Administrator

In reply to this post by Victoria Hughes

Nice point.

When David mentioned the stock trading, it brought to mind the
Ethernet protocol.

The Ethernet protocol is a low level transport that uses a
peer-to-peer approach: there is no central control. Instead, when a
machine wants to use the net, it senses if it is idle. If so, it
attempts to use it, failing when another machine also tries to use it
at the same time (within a packet transmission). In other words,
Ethernet attempts to completely serialize use of the media, with
cooperation when failure occurs.

In addition, it uses a "back-off" algorithm where an attempt to re-use
the Ethernet includes a random pause. This is a form of sharing the
commons, the Ethernet being a shared "commons" which cannot be used by
more than one packet at a time.

In the early days, we all presumed protocols would use this form of
enlightened politeness .. otherwise we are left with the tragedy of
the commons.

This knowledge has been lost. Few folks understand how the Ethernet
protocol behaves. And if they did, I doubt traders would use such an
approach.

So when I heard David, I wasn't sure if he was aware of the Ethernet
serialization, and similarly wasn't sure if traders could be persuaded
into using a similar approach to throttle trades.

-- Owen

On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 10:25 AM, Victoria Hughes
<[hidden email]> wrote:

> I'd couple this with the Ulam talks.
> After further understanding the global cultural pressures we've taken on
> when we plunged gleefully over the edge into the digital revolution, we need
> to add that to the mix.
> Cracking up, cracking open.
> Our tools make our revolutions possible and increase their impact and
> speed.
> Clearly there are dangers as well as benefits to all our hyperfast,
> hyperconnected technology. As Krakauer ended the last talk, he pointed to
> the stock-trading algorithms that reacted faster than humans would have, and
> were a major push over the economic edge for us. His take: these were a more
> disturbing example of machine "intelligence" than other Doomsday machines,
> and are already embedded in our culture.
> Internally, externally. Extraordinary pressures, extraordinary
> opportunities.
> All connected.
> We are in midair over the waterfall.
> What we can do is start where we are: get honest and capable in our selves
> and our communities. Reach out from here.
> We can incorporate revolutions in governments, economics, technologies, at a
> pace we can manage. We have to recognize our situation more clearly first.
> Much bigger stakes than what passwords we should use.
> Tory
>
> Tory Hughes
> www.toryhughes.com
> The Creative Development manual
>
>
>
>
> On Sep 5, 2011, at 9:57 AM, Owen Densmore wrote:
>
> Interesting premise from Tom's latest op-ed piece: http://goo.gl/rm3Te
>
> We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how
> to manage them:
>
> Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up.
> The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and
> America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack
> and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge.
> Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected —
> is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?
>
> The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily
> difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important
> it is.
> Worth a read.
> -- Owen
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

--

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Grant Holland

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com (Friedman+Krakauer)

Owen,

Excellent high-level description of IP.

I might mention that the protocol in many ways mimics what we all do
when we encounter a stop sign on the roadways. No central "governor"
required there either.

Grant

On 9/5/11 2:19 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:

> Nice point.
>
> When David mentioned the stock trading, it brought to mind the
> Ethernet protocol.
>
> The Ethernet protocol is a low level transport that uses a
> peer-to-peer approach: there is no central control. Instead, when a
> machine wants to use the net, it senses if it is idle. If so, it
> attempts to use it, failing when another machine also tries to use it
> at the same time (within a packet transmission). In other words,
> Ethernet attempts to completely serialize use of the media, with
> cooperation when failure occurs.
>
> In addition, it uses a "back-off" algorithm where an attempt to re-use
> the Ethernet includes a random pause. This is a form of sharing the
> commons, the Ethernet being a shared "commons" which cannot be used by
> more than one packet at a time.
>
> In the early days, we all presumed protocols would use this form of
> enlightened politeness .. otherwise we are left with the tragedy of
> the commons.
>
> This knowledge has been lost. Few folks understand how the Ethernet
> protocol behaves. And if they did, I doubt traders would use such an
> approach.
>
> So when I heard David, I wasn't sure if he was aware of the Ethernet
> serialization, and similarly wasn't sure if traders could be persuaded
> into using a similar approach to throttle trades.
>
> -- Owen
>
> On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 10:25 AM, Victoria Hughes
> <[hidden email]> wrote:
>> I'd couple this with the Ulam talks.
>> After further understanding the global cultural pressures we've taken on
>> when we plunged gleefully over the edge into the digital revolution, we need
>> to add that to the mix.
>> Cracking up, cracking open.
>> Our tools make our revolutions possible and increase their impact and
>> speed.
>> Clearly there are dangers as well as benefits to all our hyperfast,
>> hyperconnected technology. As Krakauer ended the last talk, he pointed to
>> the stock-trading algorithms that reacted faster than humans would have, and
>> were a major push over the economic edge for us. His take: these were a more
>> disturbing example of machine "intelligence" than other Doomsday machines,
>> and are already embedded in our culture.
>> Internally, externally. Extraordinary pressures, extraordinary
>> opportunities.
>> All connected.
>> We are in midair over the waterfall.
>> What we can do is start where we are: get honest and capable in our selves
>> and our communities. Reach out from here.
>> We can incorporate revolutions in governments, economics, technologies, at a
>> pace we can manage. We have to recognize our situation more clearly first.
>> Much bigger stakes than what passwords we should use.
>> Tory
>>
>> Tory Hughes
>> www.toryhughes.com
>> The Creative Development manual
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sep 5, 2011, at 9:57 AM, Owen Densmore wrote:
>>
>> Interesting premise from Tom's latest op-ed piece: http://goo.gl/rm3Te
>>
>> We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how
>> to manage them:
>>
>> Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up.
>> The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and
>> America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack
>> and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge.
>> Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected —
>> is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?
>>
>> The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily
>> difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important
>> it is.
>> Worth a read.
>> -- Owen
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>>
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>>
>
>

Marcos

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 9:57 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:

> ...http://goo.gl/rm3Te
> We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how
> to manage them:
>
> Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up.
> The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and
> America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack
> and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge.
> Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected —
> is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?
>
> The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily
> difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important
> it is.

Cool. Sounds like the opportunity of a lifetime. There are a number
of folks who have anticipated these events which could roughly be
summed up as the transition from an expansion/individualistic economy
to an interconnected/collaborative economy. Charles Eisenstein, who
presented here at sf_x, has written one of the main books on the
subject (ascentofhumanity.org) and it's worth buying a copy.

The tools in which to implement it are being explored and developed
mostly outside the mainstream consciousness and traditional centers of
dialog, but no doubt, the Internet is what is enabling it and also
what will allow it to succeed. Glad to see the issue get some real
attention.

Marcos
sf_x

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Marcos

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com (Friedman+Krakauer)

In reply to this post by Grant Holland

On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 2:49 PM, Grant Holland
<[hidden email]> wrote:
> Excellent high-level description of IP.

Actually it is specifically Metcalf's Ethernet protocol, and it still
remains a brilliant solution to the traffic contention problem. All
sorts of "intelligent" attempts at making a complex rule for packet
scheduling wouldn't have come close to the simple "wait a random
moment and re-try". Re-tries on collisions go down exponentially with
this simple constant-time approach.

mark
sf_x

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Bruce Sherwood

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com (Friedman+Krakauer)

The basic idea was invented and deployed before the advent of the internet:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALOHAnet

Bruce

On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 9:25 PM, Marcos <[hidden email]> wrote:

> On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 2:49 PM, Grant Holland
> <[hidden email]> wrote:
>> Excellent high-level description of IP.
>
> Actually it is specifically Metcalf's Ethernet protocol, and it still
> remains a brilliant solution to the traffic contention problem. All
> sorts of "intelligent" attempts at making a complex rule for packet
> scheduling wouldn't have come close to the simple "wait a random
> moment and re-try". Re-tries on collisions go down exponentially with
> this simple constant-time approach.
>
> mark
> sf_x
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

Victoria Hughes

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com

In reply to this post by Marcos

I agree. The issue has been getting attention from various levels at those levels.

Now our dilemma / opportunity is cultivating a willingness to see the interconnections, from which humane lasting solutions can be drawn.

Thus my reference to the implications of Krakauer's last talk.

As I was writing this, Stephen's email about Robert Geist came in: Robert's paper τέχνη: Trial Phase for the New Curriculum:

http://www.cs.clemson.edu/~geist/recent_papers/fp197-davis.pdf

heads in a promising direction.

Tory

Tory Hughes

www.toryhughes.com

The Creative Development manual

On Sep 5, 2011, at 9:19 PM, Marcos wrote:

On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 9:57 AM, Owen Densmore <[hidden email]> wrote:
...http://goo.gl/rm3Te
We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how
to manage them:

Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up.
The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and
America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack
and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge.
Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected —
is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?

The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily
difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important
it is.

Cool. Sounds like the opportunity of a lifetime. There are a number
of folks who have anticipated these events which could roughly be
summed up as the transition from an expansion/individualistic economy
to an interconnected/collaborative economy. Charles Eisenstein, who
presented here at sf_x, has written one of the main books on the
subject (ascentofhumanity.org) and it's worth buying a copy.

The tools in which to implement it are being explored and developed
mostly outside the mainstream consciousness and traditional centers of
dialog, but no doubt, the Internet is what is enabling it and also
what will allow it to succeed. Glad to see the issue get some real
attention.

Marcos
sf_x

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Alfredo Covaleda Vélez

Re: All Together Now - NYTimes.com

In reply to this post by Owen Densmore

Hola

I don't understand why he says that "China's growth model is under pressure". China had been growing at a rate upper than 9% and in opinion of economists from economical observatories in USA, China will continue growing at a rate around 8.8% in spite of Europe and US difficulties to growth. Maybe, USA preoccupation about a China's manipulation of the currency is so simplistic and incomplete.

The referred article doesn't show a complete scheme of the global economy. During decades Latin America remained poor being the source of commodities for USA and Europe. Now, when China emerges as an economical power, Latin America becomes source of the same commodities for China but this time, richness and growth finally arrived to Latin America region. It seems that extremely asymmetrical relations between the big brothers (US-Europe) and Latin America don't exist between China and Latin America and it has created a fruitful symbiosis between both and I suppose that it may be a similar situation between China and countries of Africa and Asia.

During the last days Jim Hoffa has been in the headlines in the US media because of his polemical opinions about some republican's moms. In spite of this pitiful gossip, he did say something interesting criticizing to some successful USA companies. He says that these companies are not doing well while manufacturing in China because it increases unemployment in USA. That's a good point, but salary in China is so cheap; even some companies from Latin America are manufacturing in China too.

¿Which one if the formula?.. still thinking.

2011/9/5 Owen Densmore <[hidden email]>

Interesting premise from Tom's latest op-ed piece: http://goo.gl/rm3Te

We're going through 4 huge shifts in the world, and no one has any idea how to manage them:

Quote: Now let me say that in English: the European Union is cracking up. The Arab world is cracking up. China’s growth model is under pressure and America’s credit-driven capitalist model has suffered a warning heart attack and needs a total rethink. Recasting any one of these alone would be huge. Doing all four at once — when the world has never been more interconnected — is mind-boggling. We are again “present at the creation” — but of what?

The first (the EU) freaks me out most, both because it's extraordinarily difficult to manage, and because no one in the US seems to see how important it is.

Worth a read.

-- Owen

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org