A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

thompnickson2

Pieter,

 

You might want to join us tomorrow for the vFRIAM meeting.  We could use some new blood.

 

Bill McCallum is usually there; he da materials guy. 

 

See Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

 

Nick

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:44 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

Simple, because the technology to get copper out of the earth and convert it into a usable form is developing faster than population rise and supplies dwindling.
My argument is that exactly this has been happening for centuries, why would it suddenly stop now? 
Going back to the 1980 bet between Simon and Ehlrig https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager. According to Ehlrig we should have run out of resources long ago, but technological development made a big difference. Another example, the US was on her way to run out of oil a couple of decades ago and is now an exporter of oil. 

I repeat, I'm not saying it WILL happen. All I'm saying is not to assume technological development HAS to end end doom HAS to happen. We just don't know what the future will bring and there are people like David Deutsch that see a very bright future for humanity. 

Back to copper, I quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper :

Julian Simon was a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a professor of business and economics. In his book The Ultimate Resource 2 (first printed in 1981 and reprinted in 1998), he extensively criticizes the notion of "peak resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though "peak copper" has been a persistent scare since the early 20th century, "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand, and the price of copper was not rising but falling over the long run. For example, even though world production of copper in 1950 was only one-eighth of what it was in early-2000s, known reserves were also much lower at the time – around 100 million metric tons – making it appear that the world would run out of copper in 40 to 50 years at most.

Simon's own explanation for this development is that the very notion of known reserves is deeply flawed,[39] as it does not take into account changes in mining profitability. As richer mines are exhausted, developers turn their attention to poorer sources of the element and eventually develop cheap methods of extracting it, raising known reserves. Thus, for example, copper was so abundant 5000 years ago, occurring in pure form as well as in highly concentrated copper ores, that prehistoric peoples were able to collect and process it with very basic technology. As of the early 21st century, copper is commonly mined from ores that contain 0.3% to 0.6% copper by weight. Yet, despite the material being far less widespread, the cost of, for example, a copper pot was vastly lower in the late 20th century than 5000 years ago.[40]

Simon essentially states that not all viable copper has been discovered and that not all technological advancements in mining and refining have occurred, so statements that the point of peak copper has been or will be reached must be false. Simon supports his argument by showing that copper supplies have increased and prices have fallen.

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 21:13, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Merle Lefkoff-2
In reply to this post by Pieter Steenekamp
I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to question once more how people in the West get educated.  
 

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110


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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Gary Schiltz-4
In reply to this post by thompnickson2
Neither. We have an overpopulation (of Homo sapiens) problem. 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 12:17 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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Re: Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

thompnickson2
In reply to this post by Merle Lefkoff-2

First rule of parliamentary order: You do not get to call the question in the same speech in which you offer comment. 

 

You are out of order.

 

(};-)]

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 4:41 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: [FRIAM] Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to question once more how people in the West get educated.  

 

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/


 

--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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Re: Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Stephen Guerin-5
In reply to this post by Merle Lefkoff-2
Merle,

Hopefully you aren't referring to Eric's suggestion for a framework of analysis and planning. I suspect your use of Embodied Energy is complimentary to his description. 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:41 PM Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to question once more how people in the West get educated.  
 

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Pieter Steenekamp
In reply to this post by Merle Lefkoff-2
@Merle
Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries. "
You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it has to be qualified.
I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics  "
David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries.  

People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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Re: Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

gepr
In reply to this post by Stephen Guerin-5
I thought Merle was simply mirroring Eric's argument that a reliance on innovation is fragile. That point seems right to me.

To Gary's point about too many humans:

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00305-6

It's difficult for me to imagine a future for intelligent life on the planet without transhumans, whether cyborg or chimera.



On April 15, 2021 9:06:24 PM PDT, Stephen Guerin <[hidden email]> wrote:

>Merle,
>
>Hopefully you aren't referring to Eric's suggestion for a framework of
>analysis and planning. I suspect your use of Embodied Energy is
>complimentary to his description.
>
>On Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:41 PM Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]>
>wrote:
>
>> I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to
>> question once more how people in the West get educated.
>>
--
glen ⛧

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uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Re: Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Steve Smith

I thought Merle was simply mirroring Eric's argument that a reliance on innovation is fragile. That point seems right to me.

Innovation is fragile *and* tech-optimism can be a runaway cycle.   I have not tried to do an analysis but my intuition gestures in the direction that *most* if not all of our technological innovations (i.e. "problem solving") are solving problems introduced by some *last round* of technical innovations.   I have (surprise!) abundant anecdotes.

Pandora and Prometheus would seem to be the stars in our TechnoUtopian present.

To Gary's point about too many humans:

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00305-6

It's difficult for me to imagine a future for intelligent life on the planet without transhumans, whether cyborg or chimera.

Margaret Atwood spins a chilling/thrilling cautionary tale in her Maddadam trilogy (Oryx&Crake - book1).   I think we will see the likes of Pigoons, Rakunks, and ChickeeNuggets before we start seeing Crakers, but it does all seem too inevitable as we go tumbling willy-nilly, like Pachinko Balls down the Dystopian adjacent possible of a TechnoUtopian vision.  Maybe COVID foreshadows the release of BlyssPluss.

I suspect we are almost *all* TechnoFuturists and mostly TechnoUtopians here.   I was born (under the rising sign of Sputnik) and raised in this mold, but began to see that there is a need for some kind of tempering wisdom for us to NOT run off the end of our resources, or destroy everything that was precious in our pursuit of fantastical possibles.  

Pieter's conviction that innovation will solve all resource limitations (apparently including a functioning biosphere habitable to humans) is, in my opinion a strong example of the Red Queen problem which we are all subject to in our TechnoOptimism.



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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Merle Lefkoff-2
In reply to this post by Pieter Steenekamp
One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way the academy works, only one thing),  they can be really really dumb about some others.

On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote:
@Merle
Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries. "
You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it has to be qualified.
I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics  "
David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries.  

People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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Re: Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Merle Lefkoff-2
In reply to this post by Stephen Guerin-5
No, Stephen, not Eric.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:07 PM Stephen Guerin <[hidden email]> wrote:
Merle,

Hopefully you aren't referring to Eric's suggestion for a framework of analysis and planning. I suspect your use of Embodied Energy is complimentary to his description. 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:41 PM Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to question once more how people in the West get educated.  
 

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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Re: Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Merle Lefkoff-2
In reply to this post by thompnickson2
Hey Nick.  I left parliamentary order a long time ago!  Welcome to the world of generative dialogue.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 9:21 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

First rule of parliamentary order: You do not get to call the question in the same speech in which you offer comment. 

 

You are out of order.

 

(};-)]

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 4:41 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: [FRIAM] Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to question once more how people in the West get educated.  

 

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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Generative Dialog and Cascading Bifurcations

Steve Smith

Merle -

If this motley crue (self-included) *could* be induced/lead/seduced into generating generative dialog, even on "what generative dialog is and how to generate it", I'd be impressed.

If *we* could, I would also be more hopeful for humanity's collective vector in the phase space (x*, dx*/dt) as we approach what I believe is a whole cascade of bifurcation points in the adjacent possible of culture, politics, economics, technology and in consequence (via human activity-drivers) for the bio/cryo/hydro/atmo-sphere of this planet we (are currently almost exclusively) constrained to.

I think it will take more than technological innovation to steer our current careen into the future toward a rich, diverse, and healthy version.  And what variation of "Innovation" might we engage in which is also sensitive and receptive to "what is", "what has gone before", and "what is outside our current apprehension but well within the scope of our destiny)" ?

- Steve


On 4/16/21 4:04 PM, Merle Lefkoff wrote:
Hey Nick.  I left parliamentary order a long time ago!  Welcome to the world of generative dialogue.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 9:21 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

First rule of parliamentary order: You do not get to call the question in the same speech in which you offer comment. 

 

You are out of order.

 

(};-)]

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 4:41 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: [FRIAM] Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to question once more how people in the West get educated.  

 

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110


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Re: Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Marcus G. Daniels
In reply to this post by gepr
It's difficult for me to imagine a future for intelligent life on the planet without transhumans, whether cyborg or chimera. >




On Apr 16, 2021, at 5:45 AM, ⛧ glen <[hidden email]> wrote:

It's difficult for me to imagine a future for intelligent life on the planet without transhumans, whether cyborg or chimera.

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Re: Generative Dialog and Cascading Bifurcations

thompnickson2
In reply to this post by Steve Smith

Steve,

 

I think this dialogue is generative of many good things.  I have been helped by it to produce three interesting publications in the last 15 years.  Perhaps our dialogues are not as consequential as those that Merle has fostered, but they have not lacked for quality as dialogues. I have learned many things and changed my views on some.  These dialogues have kept me alive ever since retirement.

 

Could they be better?  I guess.  Perhaps there is the world an expert in mediation who could show us how?

 

Nick /  

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Friday, April 16, 2021 6:27 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] Generative Dialog and Cascading Bifurcations

 

Merle -

If this motley crue (self-included) *could* be induced/lead/seduced into generating generative dialog, even on "what generative dialog is and how to generate it", I'd be impressed.

If *we* could, I would also be more hopeful for humanity's collective vector in the phase space (x*, dx*/dt) as we approach what I believe is a whole cascade of bifurcation points in the adjacent possible of culture, politics, economics, technology and in consequence (via human activity-drivers) for the bio/cryo/hydro/atmo-sphere of this planet we (are currently almost exclusively) constrained to.

I think it will take more than technological innovation to steer our current careen into the future toward a rich, diverse, and healthy version.  And what variation of "Innovation" might we engage in which is also sensitive and receptive to "what is", "what has gone before", and "what is outside our current apprehension but well within the scope of our destiny)" ?

- Steve

 

On 4/16/21 4:04 PM, Merle Lefkoff wrote:

Hey Nick.  I left parliamentary order a long time ago!  Welcome to the world of generative dialogue.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 9:21 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

First rule of parliamentary order: You do not get to call the question in the same speech in which you offer comment. 

 

You are out of order.

 

(};-)]

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 4:41 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: [FRIAM] Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to question once more how people in the West get educated.  

 

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Pieter Steenekamp
In reply to this post by thompnickson2
@ Nick, 

Re " You might want to join us tomorrow for the vFRIAM meeting.  We could use some new blood. "  

Thanks Nick, I really would like to join your sessions, but I just have too many things on my todo list so for now I'm going to pass

On Fri, 16 Apr 2021 at 00:12, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

You might want to join us tomorrow for the vFRIAM meeting.  We could use some new blood.

 

Bill McCallum is usually there; he da materials guy. 

 

See Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

 

Nick

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:44 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

Simple, because the technology to get copper out of the earth and convert it into a usable form is developing faster than population rise and supplies dwindling.
My argument is that exactly this has been happening for centuries, why would it suddenly stop now? 
Going back to the 1980 bet between Simon and Ehlrig https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager. According to Ehlrig we should have run out of resources long ago, but technological development made a big difference. Another example, the US was on her way to run out of oil a couple of decades ago and is now an exporter of oil. 

I repeat, I'm not saying it WILL happen. All I'm saying is not to assume technological development HAS to end end doom HAS to happen. We just don't know what the future will bring and there are people like David Deutsch that see a very bright future for humanity. 

Back to copper, I quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper :

Julian Simon was a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a professor of business and economics. In his book The Ultimate Resource 2 (first printed in 1981 and reprinted in 1998), he extensively criticizes the notion of "peak resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though "peak copper" has been a persistent scare since the early 20th century, "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand, and the price of copper was not rising but falling over the long run. For example, even though world production of copper in 1950 was only one-eighth of what it was in early-2000s, known reserves were also much lower at the time – around 100 million metric tons – making it appear that the world would run out of copper in 40 to 50 years at most.

Simon's own explanation for this development is that the very notion of known reserves is deeply flawed,[39] as it does not take into account changes in mining profitability. As richer mines are exhausted, developers turn their attention to poorer sources of the element and eventually develop cheap methods of extracting it, raising known reserves. Thus, for example, copper was so abundant 5000 years ago, occurring in pure form as well as in highly concentrated copper ores, that prehistoric peoples were able to collect and process it with very basic technology. As of the early 21st century, copper is commonly mined from ores that contain 0.3% to 0.6% copper by weight. Yet, despite the material being far less widespread, the cost of, for example, a copper pot was vastly lower in the late 20th century than 5000 years ago.[40]

Simon essentially states that not all viable copper has been discovered and that not all technological advancements in mining and refining have occurred, so statements that the point of peak copper has been or will be reached must be false. Simon supports his argument by showing that copper supplies have increased and prices have fallen.

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 21:13, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Pieter Steenekamp
In reply to this post by Merle Lefkoff-2
@Merle Re "true experts can be really dumb"

You're right, it's not a good argument to say that because any EXPERT said something it must be true. 

And I agree that it sounds really crazy to say that constrained by the laws of physics there are no upper limits to what humans can accomplish.

Although it sounds crazy, I argue it's not really crazy, why?

a) If we could go back 2000 years and tell those people what we have accomplished, it will certainly sound crazy to them. To miss-quote Arther C Clarke "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from being crazy"
b) There's no evidence that human ingenuity shows any signs of slowing down or stopping. On the contrary there are many signs that it's exponentially increasing. 
c) There are really very huge reservoirs of yet untapped physical resources on earth. A key component is free energy. With abundant free energy we can really achieve a lot. Once we have perfected nuclear fusion we will have many orders of magnitude more free energy available. With that it's going to be easy to desalinate sea water and pump it anywhere you wish. Also, carbon is an amazing and abundant chemical, it can be used to make components that have properties that are suitable to make and build very exotic stuff. Developing microbes to grow food in small ponds means we can restore huge parts of the planet to natural ecosystems and still have abundant food.for many of billions of people. These all are all tiny compared to the progress we made the last 2000 years and the proof of concept on all these has been done. We have done the heavy lifting technological developments. Especially with the assistance of AI, there's so much just waiting to be done. Another amazing and very recent development is mRNA vaccination technology, it has the potential to make us win the war against viruses.

It's impossible to say what's going to happen in the future. Disaster can strike. AI can get out of hand. Humanity can make any one of many stupid mistakes and any one of many potential natural disasters could distroy humanity. I'm not predicting anything. My only point is nothing is invetibel and I don't see any reason, in the absence of a natural disaster, why the progress we have been making MUST suddenly grind to a halt. We certainly are not running out of resources.  
 

On Sat, 17 Apr 2021 at 00:02, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way the academy works, only one thing),  they can be really really dumb about some others.

On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote:
@Merle
Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries. "
You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it has to be qualified.
I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics  "
David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries.  

People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
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Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110

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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Merle Lefkoff-2
We are not running out of resources.  Nature is abundant--and generous.  We are running out of a biosphere that supports life as we wrestle those resources from the earth.

On Sat, Apr 17, 2021 at 2:14 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote:
@Merle Re "true experts can be really dumb"

You're right, it's not a good argument to say that because any EXPERT said something it must be true. 

And I agree that it sounds really crazy to say that constrained by the laws of physics there are no upper limits to what humans can accomplish.

Although it sounds crazy, I argue it's not really crazy, why?

a) If we could go back 2000 years and tell those people what we have accomplished, it will certainly sound crazy to them. To miss-quote Arther C Clarke "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from being crazy"
b) There's no evidence that human ingenuity shows any signs of slowing down or stopping. On the contrary there are many signs that it's exponentially increasing. 
c) There are really very huge reservoirs of yet untapped physical resources on earth. A key component is free energy. With abundant free energy we can really achieve a lot. Once we have perfected nuclear fusion we will have many orders of magnitude more free energy available. With that it's going to be easy to desalinate sea water and pump it anywhere you wish. Also, carbon is an amazing and abundant chemical, it can be used to make components that have properties that are suitable to make and build very exotic stuff. Developing microbes to grow food in small ponds means we can restore huge parts of the planet to natural ecosystems and still have abundant food.for many of billions of people. These all are all tiny compared to the progress we made the last 2000 years and the proof of concept on all these has been done. We have done the heavy lifting technological developments. Especially with the assistance of AI, there's so much just waiting to be done. Another amazing and very recent development is mRNA vaccination technology, it has the potential to make us win the war against viruses.

It's impossible to say what's going to happen in the future. Disaster can strike. AI can get out of hand. Humanity can make any one of many stupid mistakes and any one of many potential natural disasters could distroy humanity. I'm not predicting anything. My only point is nothing is invetibel and I don't see any reason, in the absence of a natural disaster, why the progress we have been making MUST suddenly grind to a halt. We certainly are not running out of resources.  
 

On Sat, 17 Apr 2021 at 00:02, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way the academy works, only one thing),  they can be really really dumb about some others.

On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote:
@Merle
Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries. "
You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it has to be qualified.
I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics  "
David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries.  

People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110


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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Jochen Fromm-5
Our whole economic system is based on constant growth and fossil fuel consumption. It is obvious that constant growth in a finite system will not work. There are limits of growth which was already noticed during the first oil crisis 50 years ago
http://bit-player.org/2012/world3-the-public-beta

The next decades will be interesting. We have a climate crisis and a pollution problem caused by ever growing CO2 and waste production. We will run of non-renewable resources soon. 
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/forecast-when-well-run-out-of-each-metal

On the other hand there might be scientific and technological breakthroughs, such as human-level AI and machines who understand language and reach self-awareness. Interesting times. 

-J.


-------- Original message --------
From: Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]>
Date: 4/17/21 15:34 (GMT+01:00)
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

We are not running out of resources.  Nature is abundant--and generous.  We are running out of a biosphere that supports life as we wrestle those resources from the earth.

On Sat, Apr 17, 2021 at 2:14 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote:
@Merle Re "true experts can be really dumb"

You're right, it's not a good argument to say that because any EXPERT said something it must be true. 

And I agree that it sounds really crazy to say that constrained by the laws of physics there are no upper limits to what humans can accomplish.

Although it sounds crazy, I argue it's not really crazy, why?

a) If we could go back 2000 years and tell those people what we have accomplished, it will certainly sound crazy to them. To miss-quote Arther C Clarke "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from being crazy"
b) There's no evidence that human ingenuity shows any signs of slowing down or stopping. On the contrary there are many signs that it's exponentially increasing. 
c) There are really very huge reservoirs of yet untapped physical resources on earth. A key component is free energy. With abundant free energy we can really achieve a lot. Once we have perfected nuclear fusion we will have many orders of magnitude more free energy available. With that it's going to be easy to desalinate sea water and pump it anywhere you wish. Also, carbon is an amazing and abundant chemical, it can be used to make components that have properties that are suitable to make and build very exotic stuff. Developing microbes to grow food in small ponds means we can restore huge parts of the planet to natural ecosystems and still have abundant food.for many of billions of people. These all are all tiny compared to the progress we made the last 2000 years and the proof of concept on all these has been done. We have done the heavy lifting technological developments. Especially with the assistance of AI, there's so much just waiting to be done. Another amazing and very recent development is mRNA vaccination technology, it has the potential to make us win the war against viruses.

It's impossible to say what's going to happen in the future. Disaster can strike. AI can get out of hand. Humanity can make any one of many stupid mistakes and any one of many potential natural disasters could distroy humanity. I'm not predicting anything. My only point is nothing is invetibel and I don't see any reason, in the absence of a natural disaster, why the progress we have been making MUST suddenly grind to a halt. We certainly are not running out of resources.  
 

On Sat, 17 Apr 2021 at 00:02, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way the academy works, only one thing),  they can be really really dumb about some others.

On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote:
@Merle
Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries. "
You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it has to be qualified.
I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics  "
David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries.  

People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA


mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

 

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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110

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--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110

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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110


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Re: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Marcus G. Daniels
In reply to this post by Merle Lefkoff-2

As I said before, it doesn’t really matter if electric cars (or hydrogen fuel cell cars) take more energy to manufacture if one can load and unload a million green kWh’s into a battery, or recycle the battery’s materials.

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Sunday, April 18, 2021 1:16 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Our whole economic system is based on constant growth and fossil fuel consumption. It is obvious that constant growth in a finite system will not work. There are limits of growth which was already noticed during the first oil crisis 50 years ago

 

The next decades will be interesting. We have a climate crisis and a pollution problem caused by ever growing CO2 and waste production. We will run of non-renewable resources soon. 

 

On the other hand there might be scientific and technological breakthroughs, such as human-level AI and machines who understand language and reach self-awareness. Interesting times. 

 

-J.

 

 

-------- Original message --------

From: Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]>

Date: 4/17/21 15:34 (GMT+01:00)

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

We are not running out of resources.  Nature is abundant--and generous.  We are running out of a biosphere that supports life as we wrestle those resources from the earth.

 

On Sat, Apr 17, 2021 at 2:14 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote:

@Merle Re "true experts can be really dumb"

You're right, it's not a good argument to say that because any EXPERT said something it must be true. 

And I agree that it sounds really crazy to say that constrained by the laws of physics there are no upper limits to what humans can accomplish.

Although it sounds crazy, I argue it's not really crazy, why?

a) If we could go back 2000 years and tell those people what we have accomplished, it will certainly sound crazy to them. To miss-quote Arther C Clarke "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from being crazy"
b) There's no evidence that human ingenuity shows any signs of slowing down or stopping. On the contrary there are many signs that it's exponentially increasing. 
c) There are really very huge reservoirs of yet untapped physical resources on earth. A key component is free energy. With abundant free energy we can really achieve a lot. Once we have perfected nuclear fusion we will have many orders of magnitude more free energy available. With that it's going to be easy to desalinate sea water and pump it anywhere you wish. Also, carbon is an amazing and abundant chemical, it can be used to make components that have properties that are suitable to make and build very exotic stuff. Developing microbes to grow food in small ponds means we can restore huge parts of the planet to natural ecosystems and still have abundant food.for many of billions of people. These all are all tiny compared to the progress we made the last 2000 years and the proof of concept on all these has been done. We have done the heavy lifting technological developments. Especially with the assistance of AI, there's so much just waiting to be done. Another amazing and very recent development is mRNA vaccination technology, it has the potential to make us win the war against viruses.

It's impossible to say what's going to happen in the future. Disaster can strike. AI can get out of hand. Humanity can make any one of many stupid mistakes and any one of many potential natural disasters could distroy humanity. I'm not predicting anything. My only point is nothing is invetibel and I don't see any reason, in the absence of a natural disaster, why the progress we have been making MUST suddenly grind to a halt. We certainly are not running out of resources.  
 

 

On Sat, 17 Apr 2021 at 00:02, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way the academy works, only one thing),  they can be really really dumb about some others.

 

On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[hidden email]> wrote:

@Merle
Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries. "
You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it has to be qualified.
I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics  "
David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits."  That's just crazy!  Please do some research on planetary boundaries.  

 

People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!

 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? 

 

Which of my assumptions is wrong. 

 

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper?

 

 

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[hidden email]> wrote:

Pieter,

 

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question.

 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

 

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle, and all,

 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right? 

 

N

 

Nick Thompson

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

 

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

 

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

 

-J.

 

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